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The Journal Gazette

Thursday, September 13, 2018 11:50 am

Polls tight on Braun-Donnelly race

BRIAN FRANCISCO | The Journal Gazette

Republican challenger Mike Braun is ahead in Indiana's U.S. Senate race -- unless the leader is Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly.

Results of a Fox News poll released Wednesday found that 45 percent of 677 likely Hoosier voters prefer Braun in the Nov. 6 general election, 43 percent favor Donnelly, 3 percent like Libertarian Lucy Brenton and 8 percent are unsure. The survey, conducted Sept. 8 to 11, has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 3.5 percentage points.

But FiveThirtyEight, a political polling analysis website, said Wednesday the Indiana race will "likely" be won by Donnelly. The site gives him a 76.7 percent chance of being re-elected in its latest assessment of five polls taken since May.

A week earlier, an NBC News/Marist poll of 576 likely voters put Donnelly ahead of Braun by 3 percentage points. That poll, conducted Aug. 26 to 29, had a margin of error of plus-or-minus 5 percentage points.

Both the NBC News/Marist and Fox News surveys were included in FiveThirtyEight's analysis.