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US, Iran warm up; nuclear issue still cold

– Iran and the United States are making plenty of friendly gestures, but real progress is going to be harder. A notable first meeting between the two nations’ presidents suddenly seems possible, but without nuclear concessions, the U.S. is unlikely to give Tehran what it wants: an easing of punishing sanctions that have resulted in soaring inflation and unemployment.

President Barack Obama and Iran’s new president, Hasan Rouhani, both will be in New York next week for the U.N. General Assembly. And a recent flurry of goodwill gestures has raised the prospect that they will meet face to face.

As part of the effort to cast a promising outlook on Iranian diplomacy, Rouhani touted his commitment to “constructive engagement” in a column published Friday in the Washington Post. He wrote that nations spend a lot of time, perhaps too much, discussing what they don’t want rather than what they do want.

“This approach can be useful for efforts to prevent cold conflicts from turning hot. But to move beyond impasses, whether in relation to Syria, my country’s nuclear program or its relations with the United States, we need to aim higher,” Rouhani said.

“Rather than focusing on how to prevent things from getting worse, we need to think – and talk – about how to make things better. To do that, we all need to muster the courage to start conveying what we want – clearly, concisely and sincerely – and to back it up with the political will to take necessary action.”

The nuclear issue may be the most difficult challenge. The U.S. and other world powers are seeking reductions in Iran’s uranium enrichment, real-time monitoring of its nuclear facilities and scaled-back production at its underground Fordo facility. Not likely, Iran experts say. At least not yet.

“I’m a bit skeptical that we’ll see those kinds of concessions this early in the game,” said Gary Samore, who until earlier this year was Obama’s top arms control adviser.

The Obama administration has welcomed the election of Rouhani, a moderate cleric who achieved a stunning victory in Iran’s June presidential elections.

But U.S. officials are still skeptical of whether Rouhani’s more palatable rhetoric will be followed by actual shifts in Iran’s longstanding refusal to curb its nuclear program. The U.S. and its allies suspect Iran is trying to produce a nuclear weapon, though Tehran insists its nuclear activities are only for producing energy and for medical research.

Obama has been testing the waters through an exchange of letters with his Iranian counterpart. U.S. officials say Obama used his correspondence to convey urgency in resolving the nuclear dispute through diplomacy before that option is cut off.

White House officials said Friday that no meetings between Obama and Rouhani are scheduled, but they left open the prospect of a direct exchange.

“We’re always open to diplomacy if we believe it will advance our objectives,” said Ben Rhodes, Obama’s deputy national security adviser.

A face-to-face meeting between Obama and Rouhani would mark a significant step in the U.S.-Iranian relationship. But the real work on the nuclear issue would come either from direct negotiations between U.S. and Iranian officials or renewed talks between Iran and six world powers – the U.S., Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany.

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