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Road to recovery

  • Labor participation may stay low
    Workers who have dropped out of the labor force may take a few years to begin searching for work, Federal Reserve economists say in a paper offering insights into the health of a labor market that’s key to central bank policy.
  • Falling yen aids consumers
    Attention, bargain-hunters around the world: Japanese goods – from cars to televisions – are going on sale. Credit Japan’s drive to pump cash into its economy to stimulate growth.
  • China faces unrest over slow economy
    Global economic malaise has knocked the stuffing out of Luo Yan’s business making toy animals.
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All eyes on central bankers

European policy board meets soon to study the euro

– The world’s top central bankers have said they’re willing to rescue the economies of Europe and the United States. This week we’ll find out whether they are ready to act.

The Federal Reserve wraps up its two-day policy meeting today. Chairman Ben Bernanke has pledged to act if unemployment stays high. The European Central Bank meets Thursday – a week after ECB President Mario Draghi vowed to “do whatever it takes” to save the European common currency, the euro.

“If the ECB comes through and follows up with what Mr. Draghi said a couple of days ago, that’s big,” says Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at IHS. “That would minimize the risk of a nasty scenario.”

Investors are hoping the Fed and ECB will announce plans to flood markets with cash through large-scale bond purchases. But economists caution that the hopes might be dashed. The Fed might not be in a hurry to act. And investors might be expecting more of Draghi than he can deliver.

Economies on both sides of the Atlantic need help. Unemployment in the 17 countries that use the euro remained at a record 11.2 percent in June, the European Union reported Tuesday. The U.S. government announced last week that the American economy grew at a listless 1.5 percent annual pace from April through June, even slower than the 2 percent rate in the first three months. Still, many economists say the U.S. economy isn’t yet weak enough to push the Fed to act now. Some good news dribbled in Tuesday: The Conference Board said consumer confidence rose in July for the first time in five months. The Commerce Department said Americans’ incomes grew in June at the fastest pace in three months. And the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller home index showed that home prices rose in May from April in every city the index tracks.

Economists say it’s more likely the U.S. central bank will wait until its next meeting Sept. 12-13 if they’re going to do something.

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